Elizabeth line impact in Kent: Passenger numbers up at connecting stations
With annual railway figures out last week the picture of recovery continues as many stations saw growth yet are still behind pre-pandemic numbers, yet in some places numbers have topped levels in 2019.
One such area is a number of stations between Slade Green and north Kent on the line that connects to Abbey Wood. It seems likely that new housing around stations alongside direct access to the Elizabeth line could be key factors.
If we start at the edge of London in Slade Green we see passenger numbers were 1.091 million in the latest figures comparing to 917k the year before and 990k in 2019.
Next up is Dartford where numbers are 4.498m in 2023/24 compared to 3.991m the year before and 4.659m in 2019/20. Almost back to those former levels – and that’s despite many housing developments in the area being pretty slow to rise with many more swellings to be built.
Then it’s sleepy Stone Crossing. This used to be a ghost town. It’s still not exactly Waterloo but at 277k passengers beats pre-pandemic levels of 252k.
A pretty substantial housing development has been built within walking distance of the station.
Greenhithe rather lets the side down with a drop since 2019 but then again much new housing in the immediate vicinity of the station havn’t been built.
Head east and Swanscombe shows growth with 315k versus 254k before covid hit. Hundreds of homes have recently been built a 10-15 minute walk away at a development named Ebbsfleet Cross – despite not being in Ebbsfleet.
Major developments
Northfleet is usually the quietest station in this part of north Kent and that continues, though again tops 2019/20 passenger numbers with 212k against 161k.
Some vast developments are proposed near the station in years to come including the redevelopment of Ebbsfleet FC’s stadium with an 8,000 capacity and 3,500 new homes approved earlier this year. Another big site in the area is Harbour Village with 567 dwellings.
Phase 3 has been approved this month with much of Phases 1 and 2 now finished.
Ebbsfleet station on HS1 is nearby but Northfleet station is a fair bit closer on foot.
After that to the east sees the convergence of lines with stations also served by HS1 and where any Elizabeth line impact is likely minimal, though still some decent recovery can still be seen.
Elizabeth line factor
All stations between Slade Green and Northfleet benefit from direct rail services to the Elizabeth line at Abbey Wood for same station interchange and then fast access to Canary Wharf in 10 minutes, the City in less than 20, Stratford in 20 minutes and much more.
Services aren’t amazing though from north Kent though. Southeastern run services to Dartford which require a change and run extremely close to Thameslink offering long gaps in service.
Bexley Council among many others have long called for the Elizabeth line to extend beyond Abbey Wood towards the north of Kent and Ebbsfleet or Gravesend.
This isn’t likely anytime soon. Costs are in the billions and key questions would need to be addressed such as does any extension use the same tracks as Southeastern and Thameslink. Dedicated running lines push up the cost substantially.
In addition Abbey Wood station would need a rebuild shortly after opening.
Improving National Rail services
One potential option from 2021 saw National Rail services increase between Northfleet and Abbey Wood with up to 8 trains per hour.
That would likely be sufficient for some time to come and accommodate much forthcoming housing.
Yet Southeastern’s tender for new trains issued two years ago doesn’t foresee a net increase in stock above current levels initially – so what trains would operate extra services?
Perhaps in years to come and passenger growth continues we could see a follow-up order. The tender issued in 2022 does include that option.
The new government do state they want increased housebuilding and improved transport is key to achieving that. If and when any new order is made, numbers of carriages ordered and potential future add-ons will be key to watch.
And you wonder why that the Elizabeth Line could possibly extend further from Abbey Wood to Dartford and to Gravesend.
Thameslink services do not skip Slade Green Station all services that pass through call there, they skip Belvedere and Erith Stations which are not mentioned in this otherwise interesting and one assumes accurate article
Indeed I’ve changed that about Slade Green. Basic mistake and I mistakenly lumped it in with Erith and Belvedere.
I didn’t mention Erith and Belvedere usage as like stations such as Plumstead it saw a reduction probably as they’re all within a generally easy, fast and direct bus ride to Elizabeth line stations such as Abbey Wood.
For those moving into new developments such as Erith Quarry it’s probably easier for new residents to take a bus to the Elizabeth line.
Slade Green station and then points heading east is where no direct buses exist to Abbey Wood station so it’s use the train to connect to the EL – and that’s what many appear to be doing.
I wold however expect even those SE Metro stations like Erith, Belvedere and Plumstead to see growth long term. Belvedere is in the council’s growth strategy for 8k homes and a couple of thousands beside the station are approved or submitted. Erith has substantial housing plans near the station and Plumstead has Lombard Square’s 1,913 homes being built.